Three games yesterday, but I missed most of what was apparently the best of the bunch -- Denmark's up-and-down victory over Cameroon, who seemed to generate a really extraordinary number of scoring chances (for the tournament) only to squander them all in the second half.
On the whole, though, yesterday's results yielded fairly straightforward outcomes for both Groups D and E. The former, with Ghana now leading and Serbia and Germany trailing, looks like a hornet's nest of confusion, but if Germany wins against Ghana next week -- which, really, they are significant favorites to do -- they top the group. The second-place picture is a bit of a mess, but the Germans' effective control over their own destiny (through their huge goal differential lead) keeps hope for an A-B-C-D "soft spot" alive in the top quadrant of the knockout round. In Group E, meanwhile, the Dutch are almost certain winners and Japan and Denmark will play for second. There's a strong incentive for Italy to come out firing today against New Zealand -- if they fall behind Paraguay in goal differential, they could well have to play the Netherlands in the first round.
A larger tournament theme, meanwhile, seems to be the struggles of the African teams. Once touted to use home-continent advantage to make deeper-than-ever runs into the bracket, African teams are now a combined 1-6-4, with 5 goals scored and 12 allowed. From a group promotion picture, it's not much better: Cameroon are out, South Africa, Algeria, and Nigeria in somewhat desperate positions, and Ghana needs a result against a Germany to guarantee advancement. Only Ivory Coast's future is not yet written, but they're still only about a 50-50 chance to make it through. What accounts for this disappointment? I took a stab at it in my initial predictions -- the hype really didn't match the quality of the African teams, their brutal draws, and key injuries. Nate Silver, meanwhile, has some intelligent thoughts here, arguing that the idea of a continent-wide 'failure' is an overstatement.
All that said, it would be really lousy if not a single African side went forward into the Round of 16 -- I hope everybody will do their part in cheering on Drogba and the Ivorian boys today against Brazil.
On the whole, though, yesterday's results yielded fairly straightforward outcomes for both Groups D and E. The former, with Ghana now leading and Serbia and Germany trailing, looks like a hornet's nest of confusion, but if Germany wins against Ghana next week -- which, really, they are significant favorites to do -- they top the group. The second-place picture is a bit of a mess, but the Germans' effective control over their own destiny (through their huge goal differential lead) keeps hope for an A-B-C-D "soft spot" alive in the top quadrant of the knockout round. In Group E, meanwhile, the Dutch are almost certain winners and Japan and Denmark will play for second. There's a strong incentive for Italy to come out firing today against New Zealand -- if they fall behind Paraguay in goal differential, they could well have to play the Netherlands in the first round.
A larger tournament theme, meanwhile, seems to be the struggles of the African teams. Once touted to use home-continent advantage to make deeper-than-ever runs into the bracket, African teams are now a combined 1-6-4, with 5 goals scored and 12 allowed. From a group promotion picture, it's not much better: Cameroon are out, South Africa, Algeria, and Nigeria in somewhat desperate positions, and Ghana needs a result against a Germany to guarantee advancement. Only Ivory Coast's future is not yet written, but they're still only about a 50-50 chance to make it through. What accounts for this disappointment? I took a stab at it in my initial predictions -- the hype really didn't match the quality of the African teams, their brutal draws, and key injuries. Nate Silver, meanwhile, has some intelligent thoughts here, arguing that the idea of a continent-wide 'failure' is an overstatement.
All that said, it would be really lousy if not a single African side went forward into the Round of 16 -- I hope everybody will do their part in cheering on Drogba and the Ivorian boys today against Brazil.